Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.096046 0.107364 0.119098 0.132142 0.146205 0.160883 0.177329
2024-10-27 0.076992 0.093489 0.111598 0.132818 0.156862 0.183126 0.213844
2024-11-03 0.068525 0.089303 0.113232 0.142488 0.176949 0.215916 0.262958
2024-11-10 0.057383 0.080162 0.107631 0.142578 0.185219 0.234933 0.296616
2024-11-17 0.049719 0.074008 0.104536 0.144745 0.195299 0.255757 0.332471
2024-11-24 0.042847 0.067848 0.100543 0.145022 0.202496 0.272814 0.363816
2024-12-01 0.040149 0.066841 0.102869 0.153133 0.219455 0.302002 0.410407
2024-12-08 0.037867 0.066057 0.105229 0.161140 0.236294 0.331255 0.457558
2024-12-15 0.033656 0.061925 0.102518 0.161929 0.243421 0.348065 0.489142
2024-12-22 0.028861 0.056326 0.097193 0.158629 0.244699 0.357086 0.510709
2024-12-29 0.027151 0.055357 0.098439 0.164462 0.258355 0.382399 0.553589
2025-01-05 0.025119 0.053619 0.098340 0.168234 0.269143 0.404018 0.591930
2025-01-12 0.022777 0.051271 0.097383 0.171053 0.279204 0.425618 0.631721
2025-01-19 0.020489 0.048770 0.096026 0.173231 0.288488 0.446515 0.671238
2025-01-26 0.020419 0.050312 0.101248 0.185592 0.312768 0.488447 0.739764
2025-02-02 0.018110 0.047340 0.098813 0.185976 0.319574 0.506390 0.776231
2025-02-09 0.016465 0.045432 0.097976 0.188731 0.329839 0.529250 0.819680
2025-02-16 0.014632 0.042869 0.095778 0.189122 0.336473 0.547027 0.856347
2025-02-23 0.014358 0.043577 0.099365 0.198991 0.357615 0.585692 0.922380
2025-03-02 0.014071 0.044210 0.102813 0.208695 0.378665 0.624506 0.989078
2025-03-09 0.012680 0.042139 0.101116 0.209655 0.386138 0.643756 1.028505
2025-03-16 0.010853 0.038740 0.096649 0.205665 0.385703 0.651436 1.051677
2025-03-23 0.010426 0.038706 0.098600 0.212718 0.402734 0.684821 1.111566